Assignment Overview
Quantitative risk analysis is mandatory for many private organizations and government agencies in medium- and large-scale projects. Due to its advantages recognized by both practitioners and academics, Monte Carlo simulation has become a widely applied technique in quantitative risk analysis. This assignment will introduce students to Primavera Risk Analysis (formerly known as Pertmaster and Primavera Pertmaster) and how probability theory is applied in quantitative risk analysis.
This assignment is associated with the following course learning outcomes:
Analyze risks using quantitative methods for the purpose of risk exposure and prioritization and communicate their impact to stakeholders
Recommend risks for risk response planning or watch list
Devise a risk response plan based on appropriate techniques and strategies that would meet stakeholders’ expectations
Execute the risk management plan to continuously monitor risks and risk responses
Assignment Instructions
Part 1. Follow the instructions provided in Canvas>Modules>Resources for Primavera Risk Analysis and download Primavera Risk Analysis to your computer. Primavera Risk Analysis runs on Windows operating systems. You cannot install it on a Mac OS without splitting your machine. If you are a Mac user, you can install Windows applications on your Mac by doing one of the following:
You can install Windows 10 on your Mac with Boot Camp Assistant.
You can install Parallels or VMware Fusion on your Mac to split your operating system.
You can also install Primavera Risk Analysis on a virtual machine.
Part 2. Create a Word document with APA title page and answer the following questions:
1. How can Primavera Risk Analysis help project managers increase the probability of project success?
2. How does Primavera Risk Analysis work? And what are its limitations?
Hint: Answering these questions requires you to conduct some research and explore the software application. Some useful sources include the University library, Oracle website, and the Help menu of the software.
Part 3. The application of probability distributions to project schedule and cost models
1. What is your understanding of the following probability distributions? Discuss how each can impact a project schedule and/or cost.
a. BetaPert
b. Triangle
c. Normal
d. Uniform
Part 4. Performing a Monte Carlo simulation for a project case
In this part of the assignment, you will perform a Monte Carlo simulation for the project case you selected during the first week of the class. If you did not create a performance measurement baseline for your project case, update and use the template provided in Canvas>Modules>Performance Measurement Baseline Templates. Make sure that the finish date of your project baseline is set on a future date (e.g., October 14, 2050). Based on your experience and your research so far, you can decide on the probability distribution (s) and the number of iterations for your simulation. Please explain the rational for your decisions.
Your task is to examine, discuss, analyze, and interpret the results from the simulation.
What information have you obtained from the results of the simulation?
Explain how the results of the simulation may affect your commitment to the most likely completion date of the project.
What did you learn from the Tornado graph?
Your pper should be written as an esay with topical headers; it should not be formatted in a Q&A format. These sections represent the minimal items that you would want to address. From your readings and your lectures, you will be exposed to other topics that may be relevant to this pper, and you would do well to consider those in writing the esay. As part of my evaluation process (see attached rubric), ppers which cite peer reviewed sources as opposed to general websites or articles are considered a higher quality of source.
Below are some key guidelines you will want to ensure you follow in writing the pper. Think of this list as a quality control checklist, along with the attached grading rubric.
There is no page limit for this pper
Include a title page and reference listing
Pper format complies with APA 6 or 7 guidelines (e.g., Time New Roman (12 points font) and with 1-inch margins on all sides). Double-space is NOT required.
If you are unfamiliar with APA 6 or 7 guidelines, please review the sample pper at the following link: https://owl.purdue.edu/owl/research_and_citation/apa_style/apa_formatting_and_style_guide/documents/20200128APA7ProfPaper.pdf(Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.
(Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.
Also, you will find additional resources listed in the syllabus
No more than 15 percent of pper is comprised of outside sources or direct quotes
Pper fully addresses the four parts of the assignment
Pper is not written in a Question-and-Answer format, but makes appropriate use of headers and formatting in compliance with APA 6 or 7 guidelines
Pper evidences reflection of the individual author relative to the broader discipline
Pper is free of grammatical errors
Please be sure to review the attached rubric which will be used to grade the assignment. The rubric, along with the assignment instructions, will ensure that you have a clear understanding of the requirements of the assignment.
Watch these videos before submitting this assignment:
https://youtu.be/2gvwLZQ1vNULinks to an external site.
https://youtu.be/ofREMXk3FYM